Adams is the favorite, but the race remains within the margin of error. It does seem likely, however, that this election will be another 2021 election where Democratic primary voters will select a relatively moderate candidate.

Additionally, Adams is at 42% among conservative primary voters and 29% among moderates. He’s at a mere 11% among very liberals.

The candidate who seems to have the second best chance of winning at this point (Garcia) is more toward the ideological center. She does best (25%) among the candidates among the biggest bloc in the electorate, regular liberals.

Both Adams and Garcia trail among very liberals to Wiley (34%), who has mostly coalesced the left-wing part of the party.

The problem for Wiley is the very liberal portion of the electorate is relatively small (19% in the Marist poll). The moderate and conservative bloc combined are 45% and the regular liberal portion is 36%.

There are two reasons why this race is hard to predict, though. First, Adams’ polling position for initial preferences at this point is the weakest for a New York City Democratic primary frontrunner since the pivotal 1977 race. It shouldn’t shock anyone if Adams actually doesn’t have the most votes after round one.

Second, it’s not just about initial preferences. Ranked choice voting changes the equation of understanding this race.

For the first time ever, primary voters get to rank up to five candidates. If after the first round no candidate has a majority (and it’s very likely no one will), the candidate with the lowest vote total is eliminated. Her or his supporters will have their votes reallocated to the second choice. This elimination process runs itself through the different ballots until one candidate reaches a majority of the overall vote.

Consider Yang’s voters. In the Marist poll, they’re most likely to list Adams as their second choice. This shouldn’t be too surprising because his supporters are more likely to be moderate than liberal.

Yang voters, though, are also more likely to be younger than older.

New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, who is generally fifth in the polls, has more liberal, but older supporters. The Marist poll shows his 7% of the vote most likely to go to Adams.

The second choice of those who rank Wiley and Garcia first, on the other hand, are each other in the Marist poll, despite conventional wisdom putting them in different ideological camps. Why? For one thing, they both do overwhelmingly well with college-educated voters.

What we don’t know is whether voters’ second and third choices will end up being more correlated with ideology, age, race, etc. It’s likely to differ from candidate to candidate.

Most polling does indicate Adams is ahead once ranked choice voting takes place, but caution is warranted in this new system.

The winner will then be heavily favored in the fall general election to be the next mayor.